Being adequately prepared before the chess tournament is a surefire way to success. If a player has a complete understanding of the rival’s skills, combined with experience, betting is based on Elo Ratings. This allows bettors to understand the ratings better and interpret them. It enables them to identify value opportunities where the difference in strengths between competitors is not accurately reflected in the odds offered by a bookmaker, such as GGbet.
What is Elo Ratings: History & Essence
Arpad Elo created a method to measure the relative skill levels of chess players, known as the Elo rating system. First adopted by the United States Chess Federation in 1960 and then by FIDE in 1970, it replaced earlier systems based on a more human but less objective approach, statistical. Rating changes are determined by victories or defeats against specific opponents and their levels — victories over more challenging opponents earn more points. In comparison, defeats to weaker opponents take more points away.
The content of chess betting is based upon the relative strength of players using Elo ratings. Bettors are very proud of beating the odds frequently, and while odds relate to the true gap in strength between the racers to some extent, a knowledge of these ratings can help us spot where the values lie and find value bets.
How to Use Elo Ratings to Find Value Bets in Chess
Elo ratings are the tools that chess betting markets use to assign betting value. Bookmakers use these ratings to calculate their odds, but they often overlook the need to adjust recent form for the relevant format advantage and other influencing factors. By studying Elo ratings along with other relevant factors, risk-takers can uncover betting odds where the provided odds of winning are higher than they should be. Here is how you can use Elo ratings to discover value bets.
Compare Elo ratings and calculate expected outcomes
Based on the rating difference, bettors use to estimate win probabilities. A 200-point gap, for example, implies that the stronger player has a 76 percent chance of winning.
Spot rating discrepancies with recent form
Identify players who are improving quickly or returning from a slump — bookmakers may not adjust odds fast enough to reflect this.
Account for format-specific strengths
Some players perform better in rapid or blitz formats, even if their standard rating is lower. Compare ratings across formats if available.
Analyze head-to-head history
A lower-rated player with a strong record against a higher-rated opponent might offer value, especially if stylistic advantages are at play.
Check for inconsistent bookmaker odds
Compare odds across different platforms. If one bookmaker offers higher odds than the expected value based on ratings, it could signal a value opportunity.
Chess Players’ Elo Ratings Calculations
The Elo system is based on a formula that evaluates a player’s performance in a match and the strength of their opponent. Arpad Elo referred to this as a “linear approximation” method. The basic idea is that scoring is influenced by how much a player scored compared to what he should have scored.
First, the formula must be applied once the average rating difference of the player and their opponents is figured. But then, enter the number of wins expected, given that difference. This data is used to calculate the formula, so the player’s rating is changed. There is a significant increase in rating if a player plays a good game against better-rated opponents, and a minimal change in rating of an expected win against a weak opponent. This mathematical model guarantees a dynamic and responsive rate system based on actual game outcomes.